Stock www.forum4hk.com: June 2026

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

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https://youtu.be/bdCPC3L8ta8?si=Y8JYi0HF9klhN8-R

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【全集】台積電最後上車機會來了？法說會前「外資上調目標價至3400」再創紀錄！無人機預算後勢可期「帶動軍工股」？- 王榮旭吳岳展張甄薇林友...

https://youtu.be/dgJs3gAs9pE?si=0r6eT8ytJRDdOAPU

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Friday, June 26, 2026

Google vs TSMC vs I NVDA vs INTC vs AMD

Whether Google (Alphabet) is a good stock to buy right now depends on your time horizon and your view of its massive artificial intelligence investments.

Looking at Alphabet's performance, the stock has experienced notable volatility recently. After hitting an all-time high over $408 in May 2026, it pulled back significantly to around $341 per share.

A breakdown of the bull and bear cases for buying Google stock right now highlights the following:

The "Buy" Case (The Upside)

Strong Core Business: Alphabet's business is still incredibly strong. Its recent Q1 earnings showed a 22% year-over-year revenue growth, fueled heavily by Google Search and a massive 63% jump in Google Cloud revenue.
Massive Backlog: Google Cloud has a contracted backlog of roughly $460 billion, proving that corporate demand for its cloud and AI services is locked in for years to some.
Cheaper Valuation: Because the stock has pulled back 16% from its recent peak, its Price-to-Earnings ( $P/E$ ) ratio has cooled down to around 26x to 28x. For a dominant tech giant, many Wall Street analysts view this as a relatively fair, or even undervalued, entry point.

The "Caution" Case (The Downside)

Short-Term Profit Squeeze: Google is spending astronomical amounts of money on AI data centers and infrastructure (capital expenditures are projected to hit $180B–$190B). Because it is spending so much cash upfront, its Free Cash Flow (FCF) is expected to drop significantly, which has made some short-term investors nervous.
The AI Race: While Google has an unmatched distribution network (Android, Chrome, Apple search defaults), its AI model, Gemini, faces brutal competition from OpenAI, Microsoft, and open-source models.

Is it right for you?

If you are a long-term investor who believes Google will successfully monetize its AI infrastructure and maintain its search dominance over the next 5 to 10 years, buying during a market pullback like this is often considered a standard strategy.

However, if you are looking for a quick profit or are nervous about big tech volatility, a single stock like Google carries risk.

Are you trying to decide between investing in individual tech giants like Google, or are you looking to compare it to a broader tech fund?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ( $TSM$ ) is the backbone of the entire global technology industry. If you think of NVIDIA and Apple as the architects who design the world's most advanced chips, TSMC is the physical factory that actually builds them.

The stock has been on a massive bull run, trading around $431 per share (flirting with all-time highs near $476).

The "Buy" Case (The Upside)

An Absolute Monopoly: TSMC manufactures roughly 90% of the world’s super-advanced semiconductors. Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, and Qualcomm cannot make their flagship products without TSMC. It has a competitive moat that is virtually impossible to replicate.
Stunning Financial Growth: TSMC’s recent Q1 earnings were wildly successful, with US dollar revenue surging 40.6% year-over-year to $35.9 billion. More impressively, their net profit margin sits at a staggering 50.5%, meaning they keep half of every dollar they bring in as pure profit.
The Move to 2-Nanometer: TSMC is already rolling out its next-generation 2-nanometer chip technology. Because tech companies are desperate for faster, more power-efficient AI chips, TSMC is able to charge massive price premiums, which will protect its high profit margins for years.

The "Caution" Case (The Downside)

Geopolitical Concentration: The elephant in the room is always geography. Because the vast majority of TSMC's advanced factories are located in Taiwan, the stock carries a built-in "geopolitical risk premium." Any escalation in tensions between China and Taiwan could disrupt global tech supply chains overnight.
Costly Expansion Drag: To ease geopolitical fears, TSMC is building multi-billion dollar factories globally (like in Arizona). However, building and operating factories outside of Taiwan is much more expensive due to higher labor and material costs, which management noted could slightly dilute their gross margins in the latter half of the year.
Premium Pricing: Trading at a Price-to-Earnings ( $P/E$ ) ratio of around 36x, the stock is no longer "cheap." A lot of its future AI growth is already baked into the current price tag.

The Takeaway

Investing in TSMC is a bet on the global tech sector as a whole. Whether Apple wins, NVIDIA wins, or Google wins the AI race, TSMC wins regardless because they manufacture the hardware for all of them. If you can tolerate the geopolitical risk and a higher valuation, it is widely considered one of the strongest fundamental businesses in the world.

Does TSMC's role as the "factory to the stars" sound more appealing to you than trying to guess which individual AI software company will win the race?

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NVIDIA ( $NVDA$ ) is the absolute poster child for the artificial intelligence boom, and it presents a very different investment case than Google.

The stock has had a wild ride recently. After hitting its peak earlier in the year, it pulled back to around $194 per share, down from its May highs of roughly $244.

The breakdown of the bull and bear arguments for NVIDIA outlines what investors are currently weighing:

The "Buy" Case (The Upside)

Unparalleled Growth: NVIDIA's financial performance continues to shock Wall Street. In its recent Q1 earnings, revenue grew by 85% year-over-year to a massive $81.6 billion, largely driven by its Data Center business.
The "Vera Rubin" Architecture: NVIDIA is expanding beyond just GPUs. Founder Jensen Huang recently announced "Vera"—the company's first self-developed CPU built for agentic AI. This gives NVIDIA a completely new market to conquer, which analysts project could bring in an additional $20 billion in revenue.
Aggressive Capital Returns: NVIDIA is swimming in so much cash that management just approved a massive $80 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share.

The "Caution" Case (The Downside)

Supply Chain Bottlenecks: Demand for NVIDIA's flagship Blackwell chips is virtually infinite right now, but its actual revenue is completely bottlenecked by physical supply chain constraints. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging shortages mean NVIDIA can only grow as fast as its suppliers (like TSMC) can manufacture the chips.
Extremely High Expectations: Because NVIDIA has crushed earnings expectations for years, the market expects perfection. Even a slightly lower-than-expected guidance or a minor product delay can cause the stock price to drop heavily in the short term.
Geopolitical & Regulatory Risks: Because its chips are highly sensitive national tech assets, NVIDIA constantly faces the risk of tightening government export regulations, particularly regarding shipments to China.

The Takeaway

NVIDIA is a high-octane growth stock. While Google is a steady internet monopoly trying to pivot into AI, NVIDIA is the company selling the tools that power the entire AI revolution.

Because of its recent 20% pullback from its highs, its Price-to-Earnings ( $P/E$ ) ratio has compressed to a more reasonable 29x, making it highly attractive to growth investors who believe the AI infrastructure cycle still has years left to run.

Are you more comfortable with a high-growth, high-volatility stock like NVIDIA, or do you prefer the relatively safer profile of a diversified tech fund?

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Intel ( $INTC$ ) is currently undergoing one of the most dramatic corporate turnarounds in tech history. After lagging behind competitors for years and watching its stock hit rock bottom, Intel has staged a massive comeback.

The stock has skyrocketed more than 250% over the last year, trading around $128 per share—flirting with its all-time highs from the dot-com era.

Intel is an entirely different investment compared to Google, NVIDIA, or TSMC. It is no longer just a "steady chipmaker"; it is a high-stakes, high-reward turnaround play.

The "Buy" Case (The Upside)

The Turnaround is Working: Under the leadership of CEO Lip-Bu Tan (who took over in 2025), Intel has aggressively cut costs, trimmed its workforce, and refocused. Their Q1 earnings were a massive beat, bringing in $13.6 billion in revenue and reporting a non-GAAP profit of $0.29 per share against Wall Street expectations of a near-break-even quarter.
Manufacturing Moat (18A Node): Intel’s cutting-edge "18A" chip manufacturing process is finally alive, well, and pumping out high volumes in Arizona. Even better, Intel recently signed a preliminary deal to manufacture custom chips for Apple using its upgraded 18A-P process, alongside partnerships with Google, Tesla, and SpaceX.
The AI Inference Boom: While NVIDIA dominates the massive data centers that train AI, Intel’s new Xeon 6 processors are seeing a 22% surge in demand because they are highly efficient at running AI applications (inference) once they are built.

The "Caution" Case (The Downside)

Extremely Expensive Valuation: Because the stock has surged so quickly while actual profits are just starting to recover, Intel looks very expensive on paper. It currently trades at a forward Price-to-Earnings ( $P/E$ ) ratio of over 110x. Compare that to TSMC (22x) or NVIDIA (29x), and you are paying a massive premium for Intel's future potential.
The Foundry is Still Burning Cash: Building a world-class chip manufacturing business to rival TSMC is ridiculously expensive. Intel's Foundry segment still posted a $2.4 billion operating loss in Q1. Until those massive factory costs turn into steady external profits, the business is carrying a lot of financial weight.
Execution Risk: Turnarounds are fragile. If Apple adjusts its order volumes, or if external foundry clients delay moving their production to Intel in the second half of the year, the stock could experience a severe pullback.

The Takeaway

Intel is no longer the "boring, safe legacy tech stock." It has turned into an aggressive growth story backed by a massive manufacturing revival on U.S. soil.

If you believe Intel will successfully steal market share from TSMC as a global factory and continue winning giant clients like Apple, it is an incredibly exciting business. However, because it is trading near an all-time high with a sky-high valuation, the safety margin is slim.

How do you feel about investing in a company that is in the middle of a massive comeback, or do you prefer companies that are already consistently highly profitable?

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Advanced Micro Devices ( $AMD$ ) has been on an absolute tear. It is the closest direct competitor to NVIDIA in the high-stakes AI chip market.

The stock has experienced incredible momentum, skyrocketing over 130% year-to-date to trade around $520 per share, hovering near its recent all-time highs.

The "Buy" Case (The Upside)

The Premier Alternative to NVIDIA: Tech giants (like Meta, Microsoft, and Google) are desperate for alternatives to NVIDIA so they don't have to rely on a single supplier. AMD’s Instinct GPUs and MI-series accelerators are widely considered the best drop-in replacements, positioning AMD perfectly to absorb massive overflow demand.
Explosive Financial Turnaround: AMD's Q1 earnings shattered expectations, with revenue jumping 38% year-over-year to $10.3 billion. Crucially, for the first time ever, its Data Center segment made up over half of total revenue ($5.78 billion), proving it has successfully transitioned from a PC chip company into an AI enterprise powerhouse.
Broadening Market Upgrades: AMD raised its long-term outlook for the server CPU market, predicting an aggressive 35% annual growth rate through 2030. Wall Street analysts have taken notice, with several firms pushing their price targets well north of $550–$600.

The "Caution" Case (The Downside)

Priced Beyond Perfection: Because the stock has surged so rapidly, its valuation has become incredibly stretched. AMD currently trades at a trailing Price-to-Earnings ( $P/E$ ) ratio above 169x. This leaves almost zero room for error; if AMD misses its next earnings target or guides lower for the next quarter, the stock could drop aggressively.
Fighting for Second Place: While AMD is doing great, NVIDIA still controls the vast majority of the developer ecosystem via its software platform (CUDA). AMD is making great strides with its open-source software, but it is still fundamentally playing catch-up to NVIDIA's dominant market share.

The Takeaway

AMD is a phenomenal, highly agile company with top-tier leadership under CEO Lisa Su. It is the ultimate "pick-and-shovel" play for the AI boom alongside NVIDIA. However, because it is currently priced at a massive premium compared to its actual earnings, buying at these all-time highs requires a high tolerance for risk and a strong belief that its hyper-growth will continue uninterrupted.

Now that we've looked at the major players—Google, NVIDIA, TSMC, Intel, and AMD—which of these business models aligns best with your own investing style?

下半年樓價大跌。樓市速遞系列214

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Tuesday, June 9, 2026

SpaceX's massive, highly anticipated IPO is currently underway under the ticker symbol SPCX. In a rare move for a megacap listing, Elon Musk has reserved an unprecedented chunk of the offering (up to 30%) specifically for retail investors rather than just big Wall Street institutions.

SpaceX's massive, highly anticipated IPO is currently underway under the ticker symbol **SPCX**. In a rare move for a megacap listing, Elon Musk has reserved an unprecedented chunk of the offering (up to 30%) specifically for retail investors rather than just big Wall Street institutions.

If you want to buy shares at the **IPO price of $135** before it officially starts trading on the open market, you have to act quickly through one of the designated partner brokerages.

## 1. Choose a Participating Brokerage

SpaceX has explicitly named five primary online platforms to distribute shares to regular investors. Each has its own account minimum and eligibility rules:

| Brokerage | Minimum Requirement to Participate |

|---|---|

| **Robinhood** | No minimum account balance |

| **SoFi** | No minimum account balance (active investing account required) |

| **E*TRADE** | No minimum account balance |

| **Fidelity** | Requires a retail brokerage account with **$2,000 or more** |

| **Charles Schwab** | Requires a minimum liquid net worth of **$100,000** |

## 2. Submit an Indication of Interest (IOI)

Once you have an eligible account with one of these brokers, you need to navigate to their **IPO / New Issues** section to place your request:

* **Request Your Shares:** You will submit an "Indication of Interest" (IOI) or a "Conditional Offer to Buy" (COB). This tells the broker exactly how many shares you want to buy at the $135 target price.

* **Fund Your Account:** Make sure you actually have enough cash sitting in your account to cover the total cost of the shares you requested. Brokers will only consider your "funded demand."

## 3. Confirm Your Order on Pricing Night

This is the step that trips many people up. When the final IPO price is officially locked in (usually the evening before public trading begins, around Thursday night), **you must log back into your account and manually confirm your order.**

> **Important:** If you do not explicitly confirm your interest during this short evening window, your request will be canceled, and you won't be eligible for any shares.

## 4. The Allocation (The "Lottery")

Because demand for SpaceX is incredibly high, orders are expected to heavily exceed the number of available shares.

* Requesting 100 shares **does not guarantee** you will get 100 shares.

* Your broker will distribute the shares the morning before the stock market opens. You may receive your full request, a partial amount, or zero shares if the broker runs a lottery due to oversubscription. Any unallocated funds will remain in your cash balance.

## Alternative: Wait for the Open Market

If you don't want to go through the pre-IPO process or don't get allocated any shares, you can simply wait until the stock officially lists on the **Nasdaq**. Once it goes live, anyone with any standard brokerage account can buy shares of **SPCX** just like any other public stock.

*Note: Be prepared for significant price volatility on day one, as investors who missed the IPO allocation often rush to buy on the open market.*

> ⚠️ **A Warning on "Flipping":** If you are lucky enough to get allocated IPO shares, brokerages strongly discourage immediately selling them ("flipping") within the first 15 days of trading. If you sell early, platforms like Fidelity will penalize you by banning you from participating in future IPOs for 6 months to a year.

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SpaceX IPO: My Complete Trading Plan With 30-Day and 6-Month Price Targets

https://youtu.be/4tOf-A3MaOE?si=x9Lkx5OU8P0tasjh

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Sunday, June 7, 2026

摩根大通不會告訴你的 SpaceX 上市真相｜馬斯克最新訪談｜Jamie Dimon｜JPMorgan｜華爾街

https://youtu.be/RIwZfJDDUXk?si=LcygOmKaeX55muO-

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